WHAT JUST HAPPENED IN L.A.? — RAMAN SURGES 11 POINTS AHEAD OF BASS AS 33% OF VOTERS STILL HESITATE
WHAT JUST HAPPENED IN L.A.? — RAMAN SURGES 11 POINTS AHEAD OF BASS AS 33% OF VOTERS STILL HESITATE
Something just changed in Los Angeles — and the numbers have suddenly put the mayoral race under a much brighter spotlight.
A new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, shows City Councilmember Nithya Raman leading incumbent Mayor Karen Bass 39% to 28% among likely voters.
That is an 11-point gap.
But there is another number that may be just as important: 33% of likely voters remain undecided.
With the Nov. 3 election approaching, Los Angeles now finds itself in an unusual position. Raman has opened her largest lead yet in the Berkeley IGS polling, while a huge share of the electorate has not committed to either candidate.
And that creates the central question surrounding the race:
Is this the beginning of a major shift — or is the race still wide open because so many voters have yet to make up their minds?
Raman's Biggest Polling Moment Yet
The new survey represents Raman's strongest showing in this series of polling.
Raman finished second behind Bass in the June 2 primary, receiving about 29% of the vote compared with Bass' 34%. Former reality television personality Spencer Pratt finished third with roughly 26%.
The runoff has now reduced the field to Raman and Bass — but many of Pratt's former supporters have not chosen a candidate.
According to the Berkeley IGS/L.A. Times survey, 63% of voters who supported Pratt in the primary remain undecided.
Among those Pratt voters who have made a choice, 22% currently favor Bass and 16% favor Raman.
That makes the undecided bloc one of the most closely watched groups in the final weeks.
Why 33% Matters So Much
At first glance, an 11-point lead sounds straightforward.
But the underlying numbers tell a more complicated story.
The survey was conducted online from Sept. 15 through Sept. 20 among 2,150 likely Los Angeles voters, with a margin of error of approximately three percentage points.
The poll found Raman at 39%, Bass at 28%, and 33% undecided.
Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, described the level of indecision as extraordinarily unusual this close to an election.
That means the headline number is significant — but it does not tell the entire story.
A large portion of voters are still capable of changing the shape of the race simply by deciding whom they will support.
Bass Faces a Different Kind of Challenge
The same poll also found a substantial difference in favorability between the two candidates.
Bass registered 63% unfavorable and 28% favorable, with 9% offering no opinion.
Raman was viewed favorably by 40% and unfavorably by 39%, while 21% had no opinion.
Those numbers help explain why the latest poll has generated so much attention around the incumbent.
But Bass has disputed the interpretation that Raman is now clearly the front-runner.
Speaking Wednesday, Bass said Raman was “absolutely not” the front-runner and pointed to other surveys showing a closer contest. Her campaign described the Berkeley IGS/L.A. Times result as an outlier and questioned its online methodology.
That disagreement matters because this is not the only polling available.
An internal Raman campaign survey from early September showed her ahead 44% to 39%, with 17% undecided. A poll commissioned by Streets for All also showed Raman ahead, 38% to 32%, with 30% undecided.
But an early-August poll commissioned by an independent expenditure group supporting Bass showed the mayor ahead 41% to 35%, with 24% undecided.
So while the latest Berkeley poll shows a large Raman advantage, other surveys have produced considerably closer numbers.
The Generational Divide Is Hard to Ignore
One of the most striking elements of the new survey is the age divide.
Raman has a particularly large advantage among younger voters.
Among likely voters ages 18 to 29, the poll found Raman with 66% support compared with 4% for Bass.
Among voters ages 30 to 39, Raman led 64% to 12%.
Raman also led among voters ages 40 to 49 and held a narrower advantage among voters ages 50 to 64.
Bass' strongest performance came among voters 65 and older.
That creates another major storyline for the campaign: whether the candidates can broaden their support beyond the demographic groups currently backing them most strongly.
What Happens to the Undecided Voters?
This may be the biggest question of all.
The 33% who remain undecided are not necessarily a single political bloc. They include voters who supported Pratt, voters who may still be evaluating the candidates, and people who may not have been fully engaged in the runoff yet.
The candidates therefore have a large audience left to persuade.
And the campaign is already moving into a more intense phase.
Raman's campaign has celebrated the poll as evidence of momentum, while Bass and her allies have emphasized her record and challenged the survey's interpretation. Meanwhile, outside groups are beginning to sharpen their messages about Raman's positions and political affiliations.
The next major test will be whether the current polling gap appears in additional independent surveys.
Los Angeles Still Has a Long Way to Go
The latest numbers are undeniably significant.
Raman has gone from finishing behind Bass in the primary to posting an 11-point lead in one major independent poll.
But the same poll says one out of every three likely voters has not yet decided.
That makes the race less about what the current 39%-28% split says today and more about what happens when those undecided voters finally choose.
For Bass, the challenge is to persuade voters who remain unconvinced and defend her record after nearly four years in City Hall.
For Raman, the challenge is different: maintaining her support while expanding beyond the coalition that has produced her current lead.
And for Los Angeles voters, the central question is becoming increasingly clear:
Will the latest poll mark a genuine turning point — or will the 33% still on the fence reshape the race before Nov. 3?
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For now, the numbers show a major polling lead for Raman.
They do not, by themselves, determine the election.
